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轉子壓縮機:4月表現良好,庫存大幅下降

產業在線數據顯示,4月轉子壓縮機行業生產2108.3萬臺,同比增長5.43%,環比下滑1.08%;銷售2224.8萬臺,同比增長7.28%,環比下滑2.32%。本月的產銷率為105.53%,庫存量為469.1萬臺,同比減少22.86%,環比下滑19.9%。4月轉子壓縮機產銷同比仍有增長,環比微幅下滑,庫存大幅下降,行業形勢依然良好。具體到企業來看,瑞智本月表現亮眼,部分出口北美的收尾訂單4月提前出貨,疊加內銷市場集中啟動,產銷同比增長11.4%,環比增長17%。

排產來看,5月壓縮機排產仍然高企,監測的10家主要壓縮機企業總排產2095萬臺,同比去年生產實績增長8.9%。而空調企業排產相對謹慎,產業在線監測數據顯示,2019年5月家用空調行業排產約為1748萬臺,較去年同期生產實績增長2%。因為相比壓縮機而言,4月空調整機表現較為平穩。據了解,從 4 月起到五一假期結束,空調線上渠道零售額增速有所放緩,線下渠道零售額增速小幅回暖,整體來看,零售額增速基本平穩, 由于今年以來促銷的常態化, 五一促銷季對空調零售額增速的拉動不明顯,另外4、5月份南方天氣陰雨不斷,影響開局士氣。此外,今年在原材料成本下降的背景下,空調均價繼續下行,今年初美的率先進行大力度的降價促銷,4 月開始格力陸續開啟新一輪促銷活動,蘇寧趁著“518 空調節”的時機,將投入上萬臺 999元的 1P 特價機(市場均價約為 1600 元),再加上空調行業巨大的庫存壓力,可以預計,今年全年空調價格戰將十分激烈。

5月10日美國正式宣布將關稅幅度由 10%提升至 25%。空調壓縮機也在加征清單中。對于轉子式壓縮機,全球90%以上的產能來自中國,中國制造和產能規模集群優勢明顯,美國短期內難以在其他國家尋找到合適替代產能;同時,部分龍頭公司已形成全球化研發、生產布局,且自 2018 年貿易戰打響以來,對美國出口量較多的壓縮機制造企業開始積極布局海外制造體系以規避后續中美貿易戰不確定風險。對此,我們基于以上原因保持之前做出的貿易戰對行業影響有限的判斷。

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